Exponential Development is Unsustainable on a Finite Planet

Gabriel Blanco is a researcher and university professor specializing in climate change. He considers energy transition must involve diversification of sources and decentralization of production. But he also calls for reflection on why we are consuming so much energy.

Gabriel Blanco is a professor and researcher at the National University of Central Buenos Aires Province (Unicen) focusing on renewable energies, climate change, and sustainability. Having studied these issues for nearly 30 years, he has always wondered what lies behind the climate crisis, which is now a real threat.

In this context, he believes energy transition should follow certain guidelines such as diversifying energy sources and decentralizing production. But it's also important to reflect on the purpose of our energy consumption.

Blanco has advised Argentine and international organizations and is a coordinating author of reports for the UN`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

-How should the energy transition to mitigate climate change be conceived and implemented?

-Before considering how the energy transition should be, we must think about what we want to do it for. Why do we want lithium, for example? Here's the real problem. If the energy transition is just a technological change, then I don't think we're understanding the problem. If the goal is only to stop climate change, we're still missing the point. We all know what's behind all this: a model and paradigm of development that is clearly unsustainable. On a finite planet, exponential development is unsustainable.

-Don't you think that the energy transition addresses that underlying problem?

-It's clear that the current energy system is unsustainable on our planet. But this transition must include a couple of key guidelines: diversifying and decentralizing resources and analyzing what we are really consuming energy for. Diversification and decentralization go hand in hand. It means using different energy sources located in different regions, thus reducing stress on various natural resources. In Argentina, 86% of energy comes from oil and gas. This doesn't seem very smart, especially when those fuels cannot be produced locally. Without diversification, the country becomes very vulnerable. Meanwhile, decentralization involves scaling down technology, so we don't depend on large companies for energy. The clearest example of decentralization is installing solar water heaters in homes. Diversification and decentralization would also involve more actors in the production chain and promote territorial development. Furthermore, when people know how and where energy is produced, they become more aware and careful. This happens with water and food as well.

Efficiency and Rationality

-You also suggested analyzing how we use energy. Do you mean being more efficient?

-Not just that. We need to consider again whether some consumption is really necessary. We need to think about a more efficient but also rational use. It is not only about technology, but above all individual and collective behaviors. For example, we are still building houses completely unaware of how the world works. So in Argentina, we build our houses with windows facing south instead of north. And we don't plant trees on the sidewalk. These two actions alone can save a lot of energy in air conditioning and lighting. So, I don't know if it makes sense to create a solar park to power irrational consumption.

-How should Argentina capitalize on its lithium resource?

-The fear is that America's history will be repeated with other resources. There were the silver mines of Potosí, the quebracho (a South American tree with hardwood) of La Forestal (a forestry development), and now soybeans. It is always believed that we will be saved by any natural resource. There's also the mistaken concept that this wealth spills to the rest of society. I'm afraid we'll think the same about lithium.

-The difference now is that lithium has emerged on the world stage as a key resource to tackle a climate crisis.

-Lithium is very important for achieving sustainable transport and thus contributing to mitigating climate change. But it is nonetheless a further contribution to solving this global problem. There's also pollution, water sources, etc. So I return to my initial idea: do we want lithium to replace the millions of cars on the roads? Actually, we should start by changing transportation and promoting the use of bicycles and other forms of micro-mobility. If after that we see that it's necessary to change vehicle technology, then we can think about producing lithium batteries, with all the impact that entails.

The Risk of Making Things Worse

-Climate change experts understand that it's urgent to implement this sustained energy transition through technological changes.

-We're at a crossroads because it seems there’s no time to think about the initial problem. So we have to embark on anything. But I would take some time to think carefully. It's true that time is pressing, but I wouldn't embark on anything just because of the urgency of climate change. I wouldn't embark on carbon capture and storage or other technological solutions. My feeling is that if we embark on anything due to urgency, it will lead us to even worse situations.

-As a researcher, you've developed various energy scenarios to mitigate climate change. What role do lithium batteries and electromobility play?

-The energy scenarios we've developed call for huge transformations if the goal is zero emissions. In that context, to achieve zero emissions, the transportation sector must have zero emissions. We project a transportation system that transitions to electric over the years, electrifying everything by 2050. But we're also aware that this scenario could have other environmental impacts, such as water use in the lithium chain and socio-environmental conflicts. Another scenario compatible with electromobility is achieving a modal shift, moving from private vehicles to public transportation and other more sustainable mobility options. Other countries which have tried to do this have found it very difficult to achieve.

-This global climate crisis represents a huge challenge for our civilization. How optimistic are you that we'll solve it as a civilization?

-I've been researching this topic for almost 30 years, and the diagnosis is complex. As a scientist, I try to get to the heart of the problem because that's where solutions may lie. There, one realizes that centuries of development have been built on a series of natural resources like oil, coal, and gas, creating an illusion that we could become independent from the planet's natural cycles and that the planet was infinite. But now, problems we never considered are starting to emerge. That Having said that, if I were pessimistic, I wouldn't be studying this 15 hour a day. The more we understand the problem, the more likely we are to achieve substantial solutions.

Center for Human Rights and Development.