Accelerating the energy transition with electric public transport brings many more benefits

Adding electric buses, taxis, and motorcycles would not only help curb climate change but also bring additional benefits to developing countries. The challenge is to balance the high initial cost with lower operating costs.

Electric trams were created more than a century ago. This historic passenger transport system is a symbol that should be emulated today to accelerate the energy transition and fight climate change, according to various reports from international organizations.

For the World Bank, in developing countries, electrifying transport can not only help reduce carbon emissions responsible for global warming, but it also offers many other benefits.

A report from this organization concludes that a global policy goal, such as having 30% of new passenger vehicles be electric by 2030, would make economic sense for many of the 20 low- and middle-income countries analyzed. (https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/86921282-e616-4e32-a824-2349461bbcaf/content)

However, few nations in this group are transforming their transportation systems at a good pace. The main obstacle is the initial investment cost. Electric vehicles can cost up to 70% more than conventional ones. However, lower maintenance and fuel costs often offset the higher capital cost, making them a viable option in the medium term.

In addition to mitigating climate change, some other benefits of advancing passenger electric transport include:

Public health improvements by reducing air and noise pollution in cities.
Reducing congestion in urban areas by discouraging the use of private vehicles.
Decreasing dependence on fossil fuels, which involve high import costs.
Lower operating costs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.

Passenger transport beyond buses
According to the World Bank's report, the opportunity is especially focused on two-wheeled vehicles, electric buses, and, in some countries, replacing high-use four-wheel vehicles such as taxis and private hire cars.

In some of these nations, it is advantageous to electrify two-wheeled vehicles as their initial capital cost is relatively lower compared to buses.

In several low- or middle-income countries, passenger transport modes like two-wheeled scooters, three-wheeled motorcycles (tuk-tuks), and cars that function as taxis or private hire vehicles are common. In India, more than 70% of all trips are made on two-wheeled vehicles.

'The urgency of reducing carbon emissions in transport is undeniable. Electric mobility has become a vital tool in the decarbonization options table. In developing countries, the question is no longer whether the transition to electric mobility will happen, but how and when it will occur,' says the World Bank.

Electric buses also present many opportunities, but for now, the transition is slow. In 2022, nearly 66,000 electric buses were sold worldwide, only 4.5% of total bus sales.

80% of all these sales occurred in China. 98% of the world's electric buses are in operation in this Asian country, according to a document from the International Energy Agency (IEA). (https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-heavy-duty-vehicles#abstract)

Air pollution reduction
In most major cities, transport is the main cause of air pollution. In addition to carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary driver of climate change, vehicles emit toxic gases (nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide) and particulate matter from their exhaust pipes. This pollution is a major factor in premature deaths, respiratory diseases, and cancer. It is responsible for 7 million deaths worldwide each year.

Switching to electric passenger vehicles would reduce the emissions of these harmful particles by up to a factor of 10 per kilometer traveled per passenger vehicle, according to the World Bank. Electric vehicles are zero emissions. Even if electricity is generated from fossil fuels, these power plants are typically located far from cities, so residents do not breathe contaminated air.

Passenger comfort and benefits for citizens
70% of urban noise comes from transportation. Some measurements indicate that electric buses are 21 decibels (dB) quieter than those running on diesel engines. A study in Chile determined that the noise level dropped from 79 dB to 58 dB on a logarithmic scale. Noise is a problem that affects both passengers and city residents. The healthy urban noise limit is 53 dB, according to the World Health Organization. (https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/38059/Frontiers2022_SP.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y)

For passengers, another extra benefit is the lower vibration level in electric vehicles, which also do not emit substances with unpleasant odors.

Challenges of costs and batteries
As mentioned, electric vehicles are 70% more expensive than conventional ones. About 30% of that initial cost is associated with the lithium battery. Given the rapid technological progress, the cost of batteries has been decreasing by an average of 7% per year.

The World Bank expects this to help reduce the initial cost of electric vehicles, and by 2030, they anticipate prices will be close to those of internal combustion vehicles. However, they caution that the future scenario regarding battery production is uncertain, partly due to the price and availability of lithium and other critical raw materials.

Charging infrastructure is another significant capital cost associated with adopting electric passenger vehicles. This is especially costly for buses that require special charging stations but more accessible for two-wheeled vehicles, which can be charged from conventional electrical outlets.

Battery-related issues also include range. Today, bus batteries have an average range of 400 kilometers, which limits their use on long-distance routes. Additionally, battery production is concentrated in China. The IEA sees the challenge of achieving batteries with greater autonomy and diversifying production in other countries.

Higher efficiency and lower operating costs
Electric motors are much more efficient than internal combustion engines. The latter transform much of the energy into heat and noise. Electric vehicles require only a quarter to a third of the energy needed by internal combustion engine vehicles to move a passenger vehicle per kilometer, according to the World Bank's report.

Therefore, while initial costs are higher, this expenditure is offset by lower operating costs due to increased efficiency and simpler engines that require fewer repairs.

Another advantage of their efficiency is that these vehicles remain more sustainable in terms of carbon emissions, even if the power grid they rely on is not fully decarbonized.

For example, in a country with Uruguay's electricity matrix, an internal combustion vehicle emits about 0.33 kilograms of CO2 per kilometer traveled, while an electric vehicle has a footprint close to zero. This is because Uruguay's electricity matrix is more than 90% renewable.

In contrast, in more carbon-intensive countries like India (where more than 70% of its generation is fossil-fuel-based), the values are 0.25 KgCO2 per kilometer for internal combustion vehicles and 0.15 KgCO2 per kilometer for electric vehicles, respectively.